Creating Your 2020 Economic Vision for 2021 On Demand

This New Year risk outlook session will explore what was materially disrupted in 2020 so we can get it behind us; look at the band-aids applied (fiscal, monetary, and regulatory) so we can assess which can be removed to allow the next phase of healing; and, finally, identify what still requires fixing so we can risk manage around what may be in disrepair.   

Will GDP and jobs be as foretelling as transportation, small business, and legacy banking metrics like the Texas Ratio? What should we expect from the unprecedented QE intervention, and are there unintended consequences on long-term interest rates that the CRE industry needs to understand? How do key industries like leisure, travel, and energy, perform if lockdowns persist with a longer-than-expected vaccination process, or if the Biden administration takes a different approach to energy than the Trump administration? This session will examine how population and workforce migration during COVID-19 may permanently alter the composition of GDP at the state level favoring inland and low-cost states. 

Other topics will include:

• Remote work: Fad or new normal with profound implications for office CRE and urban cities.
• Property AND casualty insurance rates post the worst hurricane season in U.S. history with 30 storms that required a Greek alphabet to name them all.
• State and local government fiscal health with a diagnosis for Chapter 9 bankruptcies (Will the record of 74 during the Great Recession be surpassed?)
• Bank failures: They are back, so were the Fed's 2020 stress test conclusions premature? 
• Housing: The other dimension not being covered, in which 5.2% of all mortgages are in a forbearance program and one in four American households can't pay their rent or mortgage.
• The convergence of retail and industrial CRE and the evolution of Adaptive Reuse and Retail to Industrial Conversions (RICs) to solve the challenges of Last Mile.
• ESG: It was all about the "E" (carbon emissions and climate change) pre-COVID-19, but now it's more about the “S" and "G" (Social diversity, opportunity, and governance of private and public institutions).
• The five best forward-looking data resources and metrics to add to your risk management dashboard in 2021, such as the Kastle Systems building access card data.

 Presenter: KC Conway, Principal, Red-Shoe Economics