RMA’s Summer Reading List

Guillén has a few summer book recommendations, starting with “Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction” by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner. The book begins by looking at prediction tournaments, where everyday people are asked to anticipate future events. Often, the layman’s forecasts are more accurate than the experts. Why? Experts tend to let preconceived notions or biases cloud their judgments. The authors use this experience to help readers understand how to better predict future events.

Guillén’s second recommendation is “Uncharted: How Uncertainty Can Power Change” by Margaret Heffernan.  Guillén says this book is in many ways a counterpoint to “Superforecasting.” Instead of exploring the best way to anticipate the future, “Uncharted” focuses on adapting and embracing change. The idea is not to be afraid of uncertainty and risk, but to embrace it as something that can spur imagination and creativity. Guillén suggests reading these two books together to inspire divergent ways to conceptualize risk.

When it comes to summer reading, Tuck Chapman recommends “The Trusted Advisor” by David Maister, Charles Green, and Robert Galford. The book provides guidance on how to talk with people and earn their trust, which Tuck Chapman says is critical for risk managers who often must work across dotted lines on organizational charts to manage third-party risk. “Risk management is not an island. These [interpersonal] skills never get old,” she said.

A second book Tuck Chapman recommends is “Weapons of Math Destruction” by Cathy O’Neil. A lot of books written by quants are difficult to digest, she says, but this book is an easy and entertaining read and can really help to simplify risk modeling.